Ok so the first week I did this didn’t go so well, and well last week I was mad lazy and was too busy over the weekend to make the picks, but this week I’m back. I’m still not betting any money this week, next week is when it would start, you know if gambling was allowed and everything of course. So here are the lines and my picks for the week. ( Note every week theres always games I avoid like the plague mostly cause of how the line is set, thats no different this week, however I’m gonna start listing the games I’m not touching and say why at the end of the post.
Baltimore -4 @ Cleveland – Baltimore
Ok so the Ravens haven’t gotten off to the start they were hoping for, but thats only cause they haven’t been lucky enough to play the Browns yet. Who cares who the QB is this week, McGahee will run all over the Browns and your much more likely to see Derek Anderson throw 5 int.’s than to see even 3 Td’s from him.
Oakland + 4 1/2 @ Miami – Oakland
This is a bit risky, why ? Cause I’m betting on the Raiders. I’ve heard lots of people pick the Dolphins with the old no one goes 0-16 so they have to win a game sometime right, why not now routine. I don’t buy it not cause they are wrong about teams not going 0-16 but because the Dolphins still have games against the Browns and the Giants this year. Look for Lamont Jordan to carry the Raiders to a W in Miami, assuming Dante doesn’t self destruct trying to win the game on his own.
Chicago – 3 @ Detroit – Lions
A week or so ago I would of said this was a lock for the Bears, now I’m running away from them as fast as possible. Listen I understand Rex Grosman is bad, but Griese is worse. Griese won’t force as many mistakes but thats the coaches fault for continually trying to open up the offense with Rex, they need to simplify the offense for him and not give him the option to make those long errant passes. The other problem I have is the bears D is in shambles. Once Mike Brown went down again I knew they would struggle in the secondary but now with both their corners out and other key defenders like Tommy Harris out, theres no way Griese will be able to win in a shootout.
Houston – 3 @ Atlanta – Texans
Again here I heard the can’t go 0-16 strategy being applied here, people really must not have watched enough of the Texans so far this year. Ok Andre Johnson is still out so is Ahman Green and while it does go against everything I believe in to bet on a team with Ron Dayne starting at RB, theres just no way the Falcons will move the ball on the Texans Defense which is criminally underrated right now and THE reason they are off to such a good start and are definitely for real.
Green Bay – 2 @ Minn. – Packers
I hate lines like this they make me mad nervous, and normally send me running. Minn. has looked pretty bad so far this year and it doesn’t look like they will turn it around anytime soon, meanwhile the Packers have exceed everyone expectations so far and look to be the far superior tea, so why only 2 point favorites, does Vegas know something we don’t ? Probably they usually do, especially when they set a line begging you to pick one team, which is whats happening here, but you know what ? I’m gonna fall for it at least this week. I understand why the did it in this game just like no team can go 0-16 they can’t go 16-0 ( well maybe the Patriots can but w/e w/e w/e ) and a surprising 3-0 team goes on the road to play a division rival, this one has upset written all over it, next week everyone will be saying ” we knew the Packers weren’t that good ” it all seems so set up for that but I’m bucking the system and I say the Packers at least make it to 4-0.
Jets – 3 1/2 @ Buffalo – Jets
Ok first always take my Jet bets with a grain of salt cause well I am biased. If you see me pick them to lose make the bet cause that must mean I expect them to get spanked, however I also normally stay away from picking the Jets game cause a) I never want to bet against them and b) it’s hard to tell how biased I am sometimes, so if I pick them I really expect them to win. In fantasy if you have Marshawn Lynch play him, same goes with any of the Jets, Lynch will have a big day but Pennington will feast on that secondary and the Jets better snag an important division road victory.
Tampa Bay + 3 @ Carolina – Tampa
I didn’t want to pick this game, in fact I’d almost suggest never betting on this division unless it’s for Atlanta and New Orleans to lose, but see my thing is I HATE the Panthers, there isn’t a more confusing team in the league, and they have been doing it for years. I despise the Panthers and will never bet on them again, which can of course only mean one thing, David Carr will someone get the W for the Panthers.
Pittsburgh – 6 @ Arizona – Steelers
Heres another one where it seems set up for an upset. You got 2 former Assistant Coaches of the road team coaching at home against their former team, road team is 3-0, with 3 cupcake games, seems set up for the home team to steal this game, or at least make it close, problem with all that is Wisenhunt is saying he will be playing a platoon of Leinart and Warner, listen I already wasn’t sold on Leinart before and I’ve had a rule to bet against Kurt Warner for about 3 + years now, no way I can bet against the Steelers here.
Philly – 2 1/2 @ Giants – Eagles
But I admit I’m not THAT confident. It’s the line playing tricks on me again, I know the Eagles have looked bad until they played the Lions so people are skeptical, but this is the Giants, and trust me their secondary is even worse than the Lions, I know some of you Lions fans are shocked right now, but it’s true watch a Giants game sometime. Eagles secondary is banged up too, I expect to see Eli chuck a bunch of terrible passes in the air only to be bailed out by Plex/Toomer/Shockey making leaping catches, which of course will be followed by constant praise of Eli, still Eagles should win this game by at least a field goal.
GAMES I’M NOT TOUCHING
Dallas – 13 @ St. Louis
Dallas will win but no way will I ever bet on an NFL team to lose by more than 13, even if it is the Rams and they will probably lose by 20-30 pts.
Seattle -2 @ San Fran
Neither of these teams are that good, Seattle is more balanced, 49ers got the better defense, I can’t call it, it’s a definite flip em.
Denver + 9 1/2 @ Colts
Again 9 1/2 pts. is too much to take, even with the Colts playing at home against a clearly inferior team, Colts will win, should cover too, I just wouldn’t put any money on it, cause if I did this game would have last second touchdown to cut the lead to 8 written all over it.
New England – 7 @ Cinn.
Only cause the Bengals could be losing by 30 in the last 8 minutes and Palmer could somehow find a way to get them back within 7 in the last second. I will tell you this much though bet the OVER. It’s set at 53 1/2 pts. don’t be shocked to see the Patriots almost bet that themselves.
* edit *
I forgot the Chargers-Chiefs game, it’s ok cause I’m staying away from that one too, basically anytime you see a 10 + point spread know I’m not touching it.